Blog : Announcement

CMHC to Increase Mortgage Insurance Premiums in March 2017

CMHC to Increase Mortgage Insurance Premiums in March 2017

The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation announced this morning that they will be increasing mortgage insurance premiums on March 17th 2017. They were quick to outline that the changes would only amount to roughly a $5 increase per month for borrowers. Which was the same stance they took when they last increased premiums in June of 2015. The bottom line here is that mortgage financing just got a little more expensive for new borrowers. Existing mortgage holders are not impacted by these changes.

“We do not expect the higher premiums to have a significant impact on the ability of Canadians to buy a home,” said Steven Mennill, CMHC’s senior vice-president of insurance Steven Mennill. “Overall, the changes will preserve competition in the mortgage loan insurance industry and contribute to financial stability.”

Here is a chart that CMHC posted on their twitter account that outlines the new premiums.

New premium chart for CMHC-1

If you have questions about these changes, please contact me anytime at 416.945.9123 or by email at mat@fugeremortgage.ca

Outlined below is the full CMHC press release for your convenience, it was originally posted here on January 17, 2017.

CMHC to Increase Mortgage Insurance Premiums

OTTAWA, January 17, 2017 — CMHC is increasing its homeowner mortgage loan insurance premiums effective March 17, 2017. For the average CMHC-insured homebuyer, the higher premium will result in an increase of approximately $5 to their monthly mortgage payment.

“We do not expect the higher premiums to have a significant impact on the ability of Canadians to buy a home,” said Steven Mennill, Senior Vice-President, Insurance. “Overall, the changes will preserve competition in the mortgage loan insurance industry and contribute to financial stability.”

Capital requirements are an important factor in determining mortgage insurance premiums. The changes reflect OSFI’s new capital requirements that came into effect on January 1st of this year that require mortgage insurers to hold additional capital. Capital holdings create a buffer against potential losses, helping to ensure the long term stability of the financial system.

During the first nine months of 2016:

  • The average CMHC-insured loan was approximately $245,000.
  • The average down payment was approximately 8%.
  • The average gross debt service ratio (GDS) was 25.6%. To qualify for CMHC insurance, a homebuyer’s GDS should not exceed 32% of their total monthly household income.

Chart for CMHCAM

Premiums are calculated based on the loan-to-value ratio of the mortgage being insured. The premium can be paid in a single lump sum but more frequently is added to the mortgage principal and repaid over the life of the mortgage as part of regular mortgage payments. Additional details and scenarios are included in the backgrounder below.

CMHC regularly reviews its premiums and sets them at a level to cover related claims and expenses while also reflecting the regulatory capital requirements.

CMHC is Canada’s most experienced mortgage loan insurer. Our mortgage loan insurance enables Canadians to buy a home with a minimum down payment starting at 5%. As a Crown corporation, CMHC is the only mortgage insurer whose proceeds benefit all Canadians.

As Canada’s authority on housing, CMHC contributes to the stability of the housing market and financial system, provides support for Canadians in housing need and offers objective housing research and information to Canadian governments, consumers and the housing industry.

For additional highlights please see the attached backgrounder.

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Dec 7th, 2016

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Dec 7th, 2016

No big shocker here, in the final rate announcement of 2016, just as every economist in the country predicted, the Bank of Canada announced this morning that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent. 

Economic data suggest that global economic conditions have strengthened, as the Bank anticipated in its October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). However, uncertainty, which has been undermining business confidence and dampening investment in Canada’s major trading partners, remains undiminished. Following the election in the United States, there has been a rapid back-up in global bond yields, partly reflecting market anticipation of fiscal expansion in a US economy that is near full capacity. Canadian yields have risen significantly in this context.

In Canada, the dynamics of growth are largely as the Bank anticipated. Following a very weak first half of 2016, growth in the third quarter rebounded strongly, but more moderate growth is anticipated in the fourth quarter. Consumption growth was robust in the third quarter, supported by the new Canada Child Benefit, while the effects of federal infrastructure spending are not yet evident in the GDP data. Meanwhile, business investment and non-energy goods exports continue to disappoint. There have been ongoing gains in employment, but a significant amount of economic slack remains in Canada, in contrast to the United States. While household imbalances continue to rise, these will be mitigated over time by announced changes to housing finance rules.

Total CPI inflation has picked up in recent months but is slightly below expectations, largely because of lower food prices. Core inflation is close to 2 per cent because the effect of persistent economic slack is still being offset by that of past exchange rate depreciation, although the latter effect is dissipating.

Overall, the Bank’s Governing Council judges that the current stance of monetary policy remains appropriate. Therefore, the target for the overnight rate remains at 1/2 per cent.

You can read the official report here. 

Here are the announcements dates set our for 2017.

  • Wednesday 18 January*
  • Wednesday 1 March
  • Wednesday 12 April*
  • Wednesday 24 May
  • Wednesday 12 July*
  • Wednesday 6 September
  • Wednesday 25 October*
  • Wednesday 6 December

*Monetary Policy Report published

All rate announcements will be made at 10:00 (ET), and the Monetary Policy Report will continue to be published concurrently with the January, April, July and October rate announcements.

Are Rates Finally Going Up?

Are Rates Finally Going Up?

Well, after many years of unprecedented low interest rates in Canada, it appears the Canadian government by way of rule changes, and the American government by way of Trump, are impacting mortgage rates. Simply put, the Canadian government has recently made it more expensive for banks to lend money, while predictions of the policies that could be implemented by Donald Trump as the new President of the United States has impacted the bond market, which in turn compels lenders to increase rates.

Earlier this month TD announced that they were increasing their TD Mortgage Prime Rate to 2.85%, and if you have already scrolled through your news feed this morning, you will have seen that RBC increased their fixed rate mortgage pricing effective immediately. In typical fashion, it won’t be long until most lenders follow suit and we see increases to mortgage rates across the board. Because let’s face it, banks will use any excuse to make their businesses more profitable.

There is certainly no reason to panic, this seems more like a correction than anything, however, are rates finally heading upwards? It appears that way.

So what does this mean to you? Well… here are some action points.

  • If you have a mortgage that renews in the next 6 months, let’s talk, we can look at your options, and determine the best course of action for you.
  • If you have been thinking about refinancing your mortgage to access equity, there is no time like the present. Let’s talk.
  • If you have been sitting on the fence, considering a venture into the housing market, but aren’t sure… it’s probably a good idea to at least get a pre-approval and hold a rate for up to 120 days. No obligation, but if rates are going up, a rate hold now makes sure you save some money if you decide to make your move.
  • If you are thinking to yourself, I have no idea what I should do… it never hurts to get in touch.

As you can see, regardless of your situation, if you have mortgage questions, please contact me anytime at 416.945.9123 or by email at mat@fugeremortgage.ca, I would love to talk through your options and help you figure out a plan that works for you. I’m never too busy for new clients, or to connect with existing clients.

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Oct 19th, 2016

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Oct 19th, 2016

With all the recent government activity meant to bring stability to the Canadian housing market (read cool down Vancouver and Toronto), its no surprise that the bank of Canada has decided against making any drastic changes to the overnight rate in their announcement today. Here is the summary of where the government thinks we are at, along with a copy of the monetary policy report for October 2016. 

The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.

The global economy is expected to regain momentum in the second half of this year and through 2017 and 2018. After a weak first half, the US economy in particular is strengthening: solid consumption is being underpinned by strong employment growth and robust consumer confidence. However, because of elevated uncertainty, US business investment is on a lower track than expected.

Looking through the choppiness of recent data, the profile for growth in Canada is now lower than projected in July’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR). This is due in large part to slower near-term housing resale activity and a lower trajectory for exports. The federal government’s new measures to promote stability in Canada’s housing market are likely to restrain residential investment while dampening household vulnerabilities. Recent export data are improving but are not strong enough to make up for ground lost during the first half of 2016, despite the effects of the Canadian dollar’s past depreciation. Growth in exports over 2017 and 2018 are projected to be slower than previously forecast, due to lower estimates of global demand, a composition of US growth that appears less favourable to Canadian exports, and ongoing competitiveness challenges for Canadian firms.

After incorporating these weaker elements, Canada’s economy is still expected to grow at a rate above potential starting in the second half of 2016, supported by accommodative monetary and financial conditions and federal fiscal measures. As the economy continues to adjust to the oil price shock, investment in the energy sector appears to be bottoming out. Non-resource activity is growing solidly, particularly in the services sector. Household spending continues to rise, along with employment and incomes outside of energy-intensive regions. The Bank expects Canada’s real GDP to grow by 1.1 per cent in 2016 and about 2 per cent in both 2017 and 2018. This projection implies that the economy returns to full capacity around mid-2018, materially later than the Bank had anticipated in July.

Measures of core inflation remain close to 2 per cent as the effects of past exchange rate depreciation and excess capacity continue to offset each other. Total CPI inflation is tracking slightly below expectations because of temporary weakness in prices for gasoline, food, and telecommunications. The Bank expects total CPI inflation to be close to 2 per cent from early 2017 onwards, when these temporary factors will have dissipated, but downward pressure on inflation will continue while economic slack persists.

Given the downward revision to the growth profile and the later closing of the output gap, the Bank considers the risks around its updated inflation outlook to be roughly balanced, albeit in a context of heightened uncertainty. Meanwhile, the new housing measures should mitigate risks to the financial system over time. At present, the Bank’s Governing Council judges that the overall balance of risks is still in the zone for which the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate, and the target for the overnight rate remains at 1/2 per cent.

Read the official Release Here. 

Here are the remaining announcement dates for 2016.

  • Wednesday 7 December

Here are the announcements dates set our for 2017.

  • Wednesday 18 January*
  • Wednesday 1 March
  • Wednesday 12 April*
  • Wednesday 24 May
  • Wednesday 12 July*
  • Wednesday 6 September
  • Wednesday 25 October*
  • Wednesday 6 December

*Monetary Policy Report published

All rate announcements will be made at 10:00 (ET), and the Monetary Policy Report will continue to be published concurrently with the January, April, July and October rate announcements.

Monetary Policy Report October 2016

Creating Stability in the Canadian Housing Market

Creating Stability in the Canadian Housing Market

This morning, Finance Minister Bill Morneau announced new housing measures, changes meant to alleviate risk in Canada’s current housing market. The measures include:

  • Standardizing lending criteria for high- and low-ratio mortgages, including a mortgage stress test
  • Closing tax loopholes for capital gains exemptions on principal residence sales
  • Consulting with industry stakeholders to ensure risk is properly distributed.

It is good to note that these changes will not have any impact on existing mortgage holders, they will be applied going forward.

“Canadians have told us they are concerned about growing household debt and rapidly rising house prices in some of our biggest cities, particularly in markets like Toronto and Vancouver. These concerns have grown over many years, and there are no quick fixes. The federal government plays an important role in ensuring that housing markets are stable and function efficiently. My colleagues and I are committed to continuing to work with provinces and municipalities to address the concerns of middle class families, and to ensure Canada’s housing markets and financial system remain strong, stable and resilient well into the future.”

–Bill Morneau, Minister of Finance

During his press conference, the Finance Minister said repeatedly that he believes the housing market is stable, and that these are simply preventative measures. Over the next week there will be more information available about the specifics of what this announcement means, and that will be shared here, however in the mean time, here is the announcement from the government found on the Department of Finance website.

Backgrounder: Ensuring a Stable Housing Market for All Canadians

Protecting the long-term financial security of Canadians is a cornerstone of the Government of Canada’s efforts to help the middle class and those working hard to join it. Recognizing that for many families, their homes are their most important asset, the Government is taking preventative measures today to ensure a healthy, competitive and stable housing market for all Canadians.

Today’s actions recognize the effect that years of low interest rates and shifting attitudes towards debt and indebtedness have had on the housing market. While the overall Canadian housing market is sound, house prices have risen significantly in some markets, notably Toronto and Vancouver, and some borrowers are taking on high levels of debt. In these circumstances, it is important to ensure that these debt levels are sustainable, that lenders are acting prudently, and that financial stability risks do not arise in the event of increases in interest rates or a housing market downturn.

The Minister of Finance has been actively engaged on the housing file. One of the Government’s first steps since being elected nearly a year ago was to address pockets of risk in the housing market by raising the minimum down payment for homes priced above $500,000. Since then, Department of Finance Canada officials have been further studying the housing market, and have led a working group with municipalities and provinces, as well as federal agencies such as the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions and Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.

This in-depth analysis, informed by the productive dialogue with our partners, has informed today’s announcement of three complementary measures designed to reinforce the Canadian housing finance system, to help protect the long-term financial security of borrowers, and to improve tax fairness for Canadian homeowners. Analysis and cooperation are ongoing as the Government continues to carefully monitor the situation.

1. Bringing Consistency to Insured Mortgage Rules

“Mortgage rate stress test” for all insured borrowers:

To help ensure new homeowners can afford their mortgages even when interest rates begin to rise, mortgage insurance rules require in some cases that lenders “stress test” a borrower’s ability to make their mortgage payments at a higher interest rate. Currently, this requirement only applies to a subset of insured mortgages with variable interest rates or fixed interest rates with terms less than five years. Effective October 17, 2016, this requirement will apply to all insured mortgages, including fixed-rate mortgages with terms of five years and more. Homeowners with an existing insured mortgage or those renewing existing insured mortgages are not affected by this measure.

Safer lending:

There are currently different rules in place depending on what proportion of the value of the property is covered by a loan. For example, mortgage insurance criteria for a loan that represents 80 per cent of the value of the property or less (low loan-to-value ratio mortgages) are not as stringent as for high loan-to-value ratio mortgages (loans that represent more than 80 per cent of the value of the property). This could lead to increased risk for the taxpayers who ultimately back insured mortgages. To help ensure that taxpayer support for mortgage funding is targeted towards safer lending, effective November 30, 2016, mortgages insured by lenders through portfolio insurance and other low loan-to-value ratio mortgage insurance must meet the same loan eligibility criteria as high loan-to-value insured mortgages.

2. Improving Tax Fairness and Closing Loopholes

The Government is committed to tax fairness, and to ensuring that the exemption from capital gains tax on the sale of a principal residence is available only in appropriate cases. Proposed changes to the tax rules would ensure that the principal residence capital gains exemption is not abused, including by non-residents buying and selling a property in the same year. An additional measure would improve compliance and administration of the tax system with respect to dispositions of real estate, including the sale of a principal residence.

3. Managing Risk and Protecting Taxpayers

The Government continuously monitors the housing market and is committed to implementing policy measures that maintain a healthy, competitive and stable housing market. As a part of this effort, the Government is looking at whether the distribution of risk in Canada’s housing finance system is balanced, and appropriately reflects all parties’ abilities to share in the management of housing risks.

To this end, the Government will launch a consultation process with market participants this fall on lender risk sharing, a potential policy option that would require mortgage lenders to manage a portion of loan losses on insured mortgages that default. Currently, lenders are able to transfer virtually all of the risk of insured mortgages to mortgage insurers, and indirectly to taxpayers through the government guarantee.

If you have any questions about what any of this means, please contact me anytime at 416.945.9123 or by email at mat@fugeremortgage.ca!

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Sept 7th, 2016

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Sept 7th, 2016

The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.

Global growth in the first half of 2016 was slower than the Bank had projected in its July Monetary Policy Report (MPR), although the Bank continues to expect it to strengthen gradually in the second half of this year. The US economy was weaker than expected in the second quarter, notably reflecting a contraction in business and residential investment. While a healthy labour market and solid consumption should remain supportive of growth in the rest of the year, the outlook for business investment has become less certain. Meanwhile, global financial conditions have become even more accommodative since July. 

While Canada’s economy shrank in the second quarter, the Bank still projects a substantial rebound in the second half of this year. Second-quarter GDP was pulled down by the Alberta wildfires in May and by a drop in exports that was larger and more broad-based than expected. Exports disappointed even after accounting for weaker business and residential investment in the United States, adjustments in the resource sector, and cutbacks in auto production. The economy is expected to rebound in the third quarter as oil production recovers, rebuilding commences in Alberta, and consumer spending gets an additional lift from Canada Child Benefit payments. As federal infrastructure spending starts to have more impact, growth in the fourth quarter is projected to remain above potential. While the strength in exports during July was encouraging, the ground lost over previous months raises the possibility that the profile for economic activity will be somewhat lower than anticipated in July.  

Inflation is roughly in line with the Bank’s expectations. Total CPI inflation is below the 2 per cent target, mainly because of the temporary effects of lower consumer energy prices. Measures of core inflation remain around 2 per cent, reflecting offsetting effects of excess capacity and past exchange rate depreciation.

On balance, risks to the profile for inflation have tilted somewhat to the downside since July. At the same time, while there are preliminary signs of a possible moderation in the Vancouver housing market, financial vulnerabilities associated with household imbalances remain elevated and continue to rise. The Bank’s Governing Council judges that the overall balance of risks remains within the zone for which the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate, and the target for the overnight rate remains at 1/2 per cent.

Read the official Release Here. 

Here are the remaining announcement dates for 2016.

  • Wednesday 7 September 
  • Wednesday 19 October*
  • Wednesday 7 December

Here are the announcements dates set our for 2017.

  • Wednesday 18 January*
  • Wednesday 1 March
  • Wednesday 12 April*
  • Wednesday 24 May
  • Wednesday 12 July*
  • Wednesday 6 September
  • Wednesday 25 October*
  • Wednesday 6 December

*Monetary Policy Report published

All rate announcements will be made at 10:00 (ET), and the Monetary Policy Report will continue to be published concurrently with the January, April, July and October rate announcements.

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement July 13th, 2016

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement July 13th, 2016

The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.

Inflation in Canada is on track to return to 2 per cent in 2017 as the complex adjustment underway in Canada’s economy proceeds. The fundamentals remain in place for a pickup in growth over the projection horizon, albeit in a climate of heightened uncertainty.

In this context, the forecast for the global economy has been marked down slightly from the Bank’s April Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Global GDP growth is projected to be 2.9 per cent in 2016, 3.3 per cent in 2017, and 3.5 per cent in 2018. In particular, after a weak start to 2016 the US economy is showing signs of a rebound, with a healthy labour market and solid consumption growth. In the wake of Brexit, global markets have materially re-priced a number of asset classes. Financial conditions, already accommodative, have become even more so.

In Canada, the quarterly pattern of growth has been uneven. Real GDP grew by 2.4 per cent in the first quarter but is estimated to have contracted by 1 per cent in the second quarter, pulled down by volatile trade flows, uneven consumer spending, and the Alberta wildfires. A pick-up to 3 1/2 per cent is expected in the third quarter as oil production resumes and rebuilding begins in Fort McMurray. Consumer spending will also get a boost from the Canada Child Benefit.

While the fundamental elements of the Bank’s projection are similar to those presented in April, the forecast has been revised down in light of a weaker outlook for business investment and a lower profile for exports, reflecting a downward adjustment to US investment spending. Real GDP is expected to grow by 1.3 per cent in 2016, 2.2 per cent in 2017, and 2.1 per cent in 2018. The Bank projects above-potential growth from the second half of 2016, lifted by rising US demand and supported by accommodative monetary and financial conditions. Federal infrastructure spending and other fiscal measures announced in the March budget will also contribute to growth.  Despite recent volatility, the Bank expects the underlying trend of export growth to continue, leading to a pick-up in business investment. Higher global oil prices are helping to stabilize Canada’s energy sector and household spending is expected to increase moderately.

The Bank forecasts that the output gap will close somewhat later than estimated in April, towards the end of 2017. Underlying this judgement is the downward revision to business investment, which lowers the profile for both real GDP and, to a lesser extent, potential output.  

While inflation has recently been a little higher than anticipated, largely due to higher consumer energy prices, it is still in the lower half of the Bank’s inflation-control range. Most measures of core inflation remain close to 2 per cent but would be lower without the impact of past exchange rate depreciation. The temporary effects of exchange-rate pass-through and past declines in consumer energy prices are expected to dissipate in late 2016, and the Bank projects that inflation will average close to 2 per cent throughout 2017 as the output gap narrows.

Overall, the risks to the profile for inflation are roughly balanced, although the implications of the Brexit vote are highly uncertain and difficult to forecast. At the same time, financial vulnerabilities are elevated and rising, particularly in the greater Vancouver and Toronto areas. The Bank’s Governing Council judges that the overall balance of risks remains within the zone for which the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate, and the target for the overnight rate remains at 1/2 per cent.

Read the official Release Here. 

Here are the remaining announcement dates for 2016:

  • Wednesday 7 September
  • Wednesday 19 October*
  • Wednesday 7 December

*Monetary Policy Report published

All rate announcements will be made at 10:00 (ET), and the Monetary Policy Report will continue to be published concurrently with the April, July, and October rate announcements.

Monetary Policy Report

July 2016 Canadian Monetary Policy Report 

More Oversight for Mortgages in Canada?

More Oversight for Mortgages in Canada?

Although no firm changes have been announced regarding mortgage regulations, it looks like this might be the beginning of something. The following is correspondence shared by Mortgage Professionals Canada by email to the mortgage industry, it has been shared here for your benefit. 

The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) issued a letter this morning to all federally regulated financial institutions (FRFI). The letter expresses concern about the rising levels of household debt in Canada and serves to remind FRFIs of their obligations under Guidelines B-20 and B-21 to assess and underwrite mortgage loans and mortgage insurance in a prudent manner. 

The letter states: 

Given the current economic environment in Canada, with record levels of household indebtedness and growing risks and vulnerabilities in some housing markets, OSFI’s supervisory scrutiny in the area of mortgage underwriting will continue. Moving forward, OSFI will place an even greater emphasis on confirming that financial institutions conduct prudent mortgage underwriting, and that their internal controls and risk management practices are sound and take into account market developments.

You can read the full letter here.

Highlights

OSFI has identified the following five specific areas that it expects lenders to consider diligently during their underwriting process:

Income Verification
Due diligence processes for lenders must be in place.  Inadequate income verification can adversely affect the assessment of credit risk, anti-money laundering and counter terrorist financing (AML/CTF) compliance, capital requirements and mortgage insurability. More stringent due diligence for incomes outside of Canada should be applied, and there should not be any reliance on collateral values as a replacement for income validation.

Non-Conforming Loans
OSFI warns that the 65% loan-to-value threshold should not be considered a demarcation point below which, sound underwriting practices and borrower due diligence do not apply; a borrower’s character and capacity to service the loan should always take precedence over the value of collateral when underwriting mortgage loans or insurance.

Debt Service Ratios
Incomes should be conservatively calculated and appropriately questioned. In particular, rental incomes from the underlying property should be critically examined. OSFI also suggests that relying on current posted five-year interest rates to test a borrower’s ability to service its obligations does not represent an adequate stress test in a rising interest rate environment.

Appraisals and LTV Calculation
OSFI suggests that rapid house price increases create more uncertainty about the reliability of property appraisals. Institutions should use appraisal values and approaches that provide for a conservative LTV calculation, and not assume that housing prices will remain stable or continue to rise.

Risk Appetite and Portfolio Management
OSFI’s supervisory work indicates that the risk profile of newer mortgage loans is generally on the rise. OSFI reminds mortgage lenders and mortgage insurers to revisit their Residential Mortgage Underwriting Policy and Residential Mortgage Insurance Underwriting Plan regularly to ensure a stringent alignment between their stated risk appetite and their actual mortgage/mortgage insurance underwriting and risk management practices.

OSFI’s letter further states that they are working on various capital policy initiatives to strengthen the measurement of capital held by the major banks and mortgage insurers to ensure their ability to weather losses from residential mortgage defaults. New measures are targeted for implementation in November 2016 and January 2017 respectively.  Risk Sensitive Floors, Capital Requirements for Mortgage Insurers, and BCBS Revisions to the Standardized Approach for Credit Risk are each included in these reviews. 

We are pleased that OSFI is committed to consultations with our industry prior to the implementation of these new rules. Mortgage Professionals Canada will be involved in these discussions and we will keep you informed of any developments.

 

This article was originally published by Mortgage Professionals Canada and was included in an email correspondence. 

 

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement May 25th, 2016

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement May 25th, 2016

The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.

The global economy is evolving largely as the Bank projected in its April Monetary Policy Report (MPR). In the United States, despite weakness in the first quarter, a number of indicators, including employment, point to a return to solid growth in 2016. Financial conditions remain accommodative, with ongoing geopolitical factors contributing to fragile market sentiment. Oil prices are higher, in part because of short-term supply disruptions.

In Canada, the economy’s structural adjustment to the oil price shock continues, but is proving to be uneven. Growth in the first quarter of 2016 appears to be in line with the Bank’s April projection, although business investment and intentions remain disappointing. The second quarter will be much weaker than predicted because of the devastating Alberta wildfires. The Bank’s preliminary assessment is that fire-related destruction and the associated halt to oil production will cut about 1 1/4 percentage points off real GDP growth in the second quarter. The economy is expected to rebound in the third quarter, as oil production resumes and reconstruction begins. While the Canadian dollar has been fluctuating in response to shifting expectations of US monetary policy and higher oil prices, it is now close to the level assumed in April.

Inflation is roughly in line with the Bank’s expectations. Total CPI inflation has risen recently, largely due to movements in gasoline prices, but remains slightly below the 2 per cent target. Measures of core inflation remain close to 2 per cent, reflecting the offsetting influences of past exchange rate depreciation and excess capacity.

Canada’s housing market continues to display strong regional divergences, reinforced by the complex adjustment underway in the economy. In this context, household vulnerabilities have moved higher. Meanwhile, the risks to the Bank’s inflation projection remain roughly balanced. Therefore, the Bank’s Governing Council judges that the current stance of monetary policy is still appropriate, and the target for the overnight rate remains at 1/2 per cent.

Read the official press release here. 

Here are the remaining announcement dates for 2016:

  • Wednesday 13 July*
  • Wednesday 7 September
  • Wednesday 19 October*
  • Wednesday 7 December

*Monetary Policy Report published

All rate announcements will be made at 10:00 (ET), and the Monetary Policy Report will continue to be published concurrently with the April, July, and October rate announcements.

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement April 13th, 2016

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement April 13th, 2016

The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.

Growth in the global economy is expected to strengthen gradually from about 3 per cent in 2016 to 3 1/2 per cent in 2017-18, a weaker outlook than the Bank had projected in its January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). After a slow start to 2016, the US economy is expected to regain momentum, but with a lower profile and a composition that is less favourable for Canadian exports. Financial conditions have improved, partly in response to expectations of more accommodative monetary policy in some major economies.

Prices of oil and other commodities are off their earlier lows and slightly above levels assumed by the Bank in January, but remain well below historical averages. Nonetheless, the Bank expects deeper cuts to investment in Canada’s energy sector than were forecast in January. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar has firmed, reflecting shifting expectations for monetary policy in Canada and the United States, as well as recent increases in commodity prices.

The Canadian economy’s complex structural adjustment to the oil price shock is ongoing and will dampen growth throughout the Bank’s projection horizon. First-quarter GDP growth appears to have been unexpectedly strong, but some of that strength is due to temporary factors and is likely to reverse in the second quarter. Still, it does appear that the positive forces at work in the economy are starting to outweigh those that are negative. Non-resource exports are expected to strengthen, but their profile is weaker than previously projected, in part because of slower foreign demand growth and the higher Canadian dollar. The economy continues to create net new employment, especially in services, despite job losses in resource-intensive regions. In this context, household spending continues to expand moderately. While business investment is still shrinking due to sizeable declines in the energy sector, it is expected to turn positive later this year. The complex adjustment figures importantly in the Bank’s annual review of the economy’s potential, which has resulted in a lower estimated range for potential output growth.

The combined effect of all of these global and domestic developments would have been a modest downgrade of the Bank’s outlook. However, the fiscal measures announced in the March federal budget will have a notable positive impact on GDP. The Bank now projects real GDP growth of 1.7 per cent in 2016, 2.3 per cent in 2017 and 2.0 per cent in 2018. This new growth profile, combined with the revised estimate for potential, suggests the output gap could close somewhat earlier than the Bank had anticipated in January, likely in the second half of 2017.

Inflation in Canada continues to track largely as the Bank anticipated. Total CPI inflation is below the 2 per cent target and will likely ease further before returning to 2 per cent as the effects of exchange rate pass-through and lower consumer energy prices unwind and the economy’s excess capacity diminishes. Measures of core inflation are close to 2 per cent and continue to reflect the offsetting influences of past exchange rate depreciation and excess capacity.

Overall, the risks to the profile for inflation are roughly balanced. Meanwhile, financial vulnerabilities continue to edge higher, in part due to regional shifts in activity associated with the structural adjustment underway in Canada’s economy. The Bank’s Governing Council judges that the overall balance of risks remains within the zone for which the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate, and the target for the overnight rate remains at 1/2 per cent.

Read the official press release here.

Here are the remaining announcement dates for 2016:

  • Wednesday 13 April*
  • Wednesday 25 May
  • Wednesday 13 July*
  • Wednesday 7 September
  • Wednesday 19 October*
  • Wednesday 7 December

*Monetary Policy Report published

All rate announcements will be made at 10:00 (ET), and the Monetary Policy Report will continue to be published concurrently with the April, July, and October rate announcements.

Monetary Policy Report April 2016