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Bank of Canada Rate Announcement May 25th, 2016

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement May 25th, 2016

The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.

The global economy is evolving largely as the Bank projected in its April Monetary Policy Report (MPR). In the United States, despite weakness in the first quarter, a number of indicators, including employment, point to a return to solid growth in 2016. Financial conditions remain accommodative, with ongoing geopolitical factors contributing to fragile market sentiment. Oil prices are higher, in part because of short-term supply disruptions.

In Canada, the economy’s structural adjustment to the oil price shock continues, but is proving to be uneven. Growth in the first quarter of 2016 appears to be in line with the Bank’s April projection, although business investment and intentions remain disappointing. The second quarter will be much weaker than predicted because of the devastating Alberta wildfires. The Bank’s preliminary assessment is that fire-related destruction and the associated halt to oil production will cut about 1 1/4 percentage points off real GDP growth in the second quarter. The economy is expected to rebound in the third quarter, as oil production resumes and reconstruction begins. While the Canadian dollar has been fluctuating in response to shifting expectations of US monetary policy and higher oil prices, it is now close to the level assumed in April.

Inflation is roughly in line with the Bank’s expectations. Total CPI inflation has risen recently, largely due to movements in gasoline prices, but remains slightly below the 2 per cent target. Measures of core inflation remain close to 2 per cent, reflecting the offsetting influences of past exchange rate depreciation and excess capacity.

Canada’s housing market continues to display strong regional divergences, reinforced by the complex adjustment underway in the economy. In this context, household vulnerabilities have moved higher. Meanwhile, the risks to the Bank’s inflation projection remain roughly balanced. Therefore, the Bank’s Governing Council judges that the current stance of monetary policy is still appropriate, and the target for the overnight rate remains at 1/2 per cent.

Read the official press release here. 

Here are the remaining announcement dates for 2016:

  • Wednesday 13 July*
  • Wednesday 7 September
  • Wednesday 19 October*
  • Wednesday 7 December

*Monetary Policy Report published

All rate announcements will be made at 10:00 (ET), and the Monetary Policy Report will continue to be published concurrently with the April, July, and October rate announcements.

CMHC Housing Starts Report | May 2016

CMHC Housing Starts Report | May 2016

  • By mathieufugere@gmail.com
  • May 18, 2016
  • Blog,CMHC

It’s been said that talking about the Canadian Housing Market is like talking about the weather in Canada. “How’s the weather in Canada today”? seems like a rather odd question, it all depends where you are! Similarly, the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) just released a report on the housing starts in Canada for the remainder of 2016 and 2017, indicating that the report reflects significant regional differences. Here is the media release from CMHC.

CMHC Expects Housing Starts to Slow in 2016 and 2017, Reflecting Significant Regional Differences

OTTAWA, May 18, 2016 — Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s (CMHC) second quarter Housing Market Outlook (HMO), Canada Edition highlights important regional differences in housing activity. Housing starts at the national level are expected to slow in 2016 and 2017, while MLS® sales will reflect renewed economic growth in 2016 before falling back slightly in 2017.

Report Highlights

  • Annual housing starts are expected to range from 181,300 units to 192,300 units in 2016 and from 172,600 units to 183,000 units in 2017.
  • Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) sales are expected to range from 501,700 unites to 525,400 units in 2016 before dropping into a lower range of 485,500 units to 508,400 units in 2017.
  • The average MLS® price is forecast to be between $474,200 and $495,800 in 2016 and between $479,300 and $501,100 in 2017.
  • There will be strong variations in housing market activity across provinces. Slower growth in oil-producing provinces such as Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador will be partly offset by increased activity in British Columbia and Ontario.

In an effort to align itself with the various needs of those seeking information about the housing market, CMHC’s Market Analysis Centre has undertaken a complete review of its products and services. As a part of this review, the CMHC’s Housing Market Outlook publication will be undergoing a series of modifications. The general objective is to provide a range of possible outcomes that, in a context of economic and financial uncertainty, will better help users in their decision-making process.

As a first step in this ongoing process, the present edition incorporates forecast ranges for housing variables as well as an expanded discussion on the risks to the forecast.

The complete HMO, including national, regional and CMA forecasts, is available here.

In order to access future Market Analysis Centre publications from CMHC, please subscribe to Housing Observer Online by visiting the following link: https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/observer/

As Canada’s authority on housing, CMHC contributes to the stability of the housing market and financial system, provides support for Canadians in housing need, and offers objective housing research and information to Canadian governments, consumers and the housing industry.

For more information, visit our website at www.cmhc.ca or follow us on Twitter, YouTube, LinkedIn and Facebook.

Bob-DuganHR

“Our forecast shows that there are important provincial variations within the Canadian housing market. Increased housing starts in Ontario and B.C. will be more than offset by declines in provinces affected by the drop in oil prices in 2016. Sales will reflect renewed economic growth in 2016 before falling back slightly in 2017.”

— Bob Dugan, Chief Economist, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Mortgage Costs About to Rise

Mortgage Costs About to Rise

Non-bank lenders rely heavily on securitization (selling mortgages to investors to raise money). They then lend that money out to new borrowers. This July, that’s about to get a whole lot more complicated…and costly.

Big changes are afoot in the mortgage business, and they’re coming to a lender near you in two months. They include:

  • Higher fees for lenders who use government-guaranteed mortgage-backed securities (MBS)
  • Restrictions on securitizing mortgages in non-CMHC guaranteed securities
  • A requirement to securitize portfolio (bulk) insured mortgages within six months

New Guarantee Fees

The Department of Finance (DoF) wants to spur development of “private market funding sources” for mortgages. The goal is to reduce Ottawa’s direct exposure to mortgage risk. CMHC’s answer is to raise the cost of government-sponsored funding. The losers here are lenders that depend on securitization methods, like the Canada Mortgage Bond (CMB). These extra fees will likely be passed straight through to consumers in the form of higher rates.

Banning Non-CMHC-Sponsored Securitization

Effective July 1, lenders will no longer be able to directly place insured mortgages in non-CMHC approved securities. Lenders who rely on asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP), which include a few of the top non-bank broker-channel lenders, will have to find another way to sell their mortgages.

That’s a problem for these lenders. Normal securitization, like NHA MBS, require lenders to assemble $2+ million pools of mortgages that are very similar in attributes (similar term, similar interest adjustment dates, similar coupons, etc.). ABCP wasn’t as restrictive. It helped key broker-channel lenders sell off different and odd types of prime mortgages more easily (read, more cost effectively).

There are still a few workarounds for getting insured mortgages into ABCP conduits (e.g., by turning them into NHA MBS pools, paying a guarantee fee and then selling them into ABCP conduits), but that’s more expensive. Once again, these extra costs will be passed straight through to consumers.

The New Purpose Test

Risk

Here’s where things get dicey. The DoF has a new “purpose test” starting this July for mortgages that are portfolio (a.k.a., “bulk”) insured. Lenders that bulk insure mortgages will have six months to securitize them. If they don’t, the insurance on those mortgages will be cancelled. (There are a few exceptions, including but not limited to, a 5% buffer and an allowance for delinquent mortgages.)

The goal of this purpose test is to ensure lenders use bulk insurance for securitization purposes and not capital relief (a strategy where big banks insured mortgages and used the “zero-risk” status of those insured mortgages to avoid setting aside capital against them).

This new “purpose test” sounds fairly innocuous, until you look at it from a small lender’s eyes. Small lenders don’t have balance sheets like the major banks. If they fund a mortgage that isn’t eligible for securitization, they have a problem.

Small lenders, for instance, can’t securitize 1- or 2-year terms very effectively. Securitization pools must be at least $2 million, be grouped by amortization, have similar interest rates and cannot be overweighted with big mortgages. As such, the little guys don’t have enough of them to pool and they don’t have a large array of buyers for these short-term mortgages.

The net effect is that smaller lenders (and new entrants) probably won’t be able to price 1- or 2-year terms as competitively. They’ll likely have to sell to big balance sheet lenders (a.k.a., “aggregators”), potentially at margin-squeezing prices. Even if they could pool them, the result would be a larger number of small pools, which are more expensive to sell to investors.

Practically speaking, this could be a real problem for:

  • renewing borrowers who want a shorter term from a non-bank lender
  • borrowers who want to refinance (e.g., Someone with two years left on their mortgage who wants to add $50,000 to it can typically blend and increase with no penalty. Going forward, smaller non-bank lenders may limit this feature on terms less than three years)
  • variable-rate borrowers who want to convert into a shorter-term fixed mortgage (more lenders may start restricting variable-rate conversions to 5-year terms only)

The Takeaway

Regulations

This latest onslaught of mortgage regs could soon reduce liquidity for non-bank lenders with less diverse funding sources than the banks. Remember that when you hear the DoF and CMHC lauding how their policies foster competition in the mortgage market.

These changes are especially painful to smaller lenders who can’t pool enough mortgages cost-effectively. The result could be more one-dimensional product offerings (e.g., 3-year and 5-year terms only, and fewer mid-term refinance privileges) for these very important bank challengers.

This, in turn, raises costs for customers both directly and indirectly. For mortgages funding after June, there will be a literal step-up in rates. In addition, there’s the indirect impact from less rate competition from smaller lenders. Remember, rates are set at the margin. Consumers have been increasingly exposed to competitive rates from bank challengers, and that in turn influences big bank pricing.

All of this is in the name of reducing government exposure to mortgages, mortgages that have proven time and again to be one of the lowest-risk asset classes in Canada.

Did the federal policy-makers envision all these side effects when they instituted these rules? We have to assume they did, and chose to do it anyhow.

 

The article “Mortgage Costs About to Rise” was originally published Canadian Mortgage trends, May 9th, 2016. Canadian Mortgage Trends is a publication of Mortgage Professionals Canada. 

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement April 13th, 2016

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement April 13th, 2016

The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.

Growth in the global economy is expected to strengthen gradually from about 3 per cent in 2016 to 3 1/2 per cent in 2017-18, a weaker outlook than the Bank had projected in its January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). After a slow start to 2016, the US economy is expected to regain momentum, but with a lower profile and a composition that is less favourable for Canadian exports. Financial conditions have improved, partly in response to expectations of more accommodative monetary policy in some major economies.

Prices of oil and other commodities are off their earlier lows and slightly above levels assumed by the Bank in January, but remain well below historical averages. Nonetheless, the Bank expects deeper cuts to investment in Canada’s energy sector than were forecast in January. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar has firmed, reflecting shifting expectations for monetary policy in Canada and the United States, as well as recent increases in commodity prices.

The Canadian economy’s complex structural adjustment to the oil price shock is ongoing and will dampen growth throughout the Bank’s projection horizon. First-quarter GDP growth appears to have been unexpectedly strong, but some of that strength is due to temporary factors and is likely to reverse in the second quarter. Still, it does appear that the positive forces at work in the economy are starting to outweigh those that are negative. Non-resource exports are expected to strengthen, but their profile is weaker than previously projected, in part because of slower foreign demand growth and the higher Canadian dollar. The economy continues to create net new employment, especially in services, despite job losses in resource-intensive regions. In this context, household spending continues to expand moderately. While business investment is still shrinking due to sizeable declines in the energy sector, it is expected to turn positive later this year. The complex adjustment figures importantly in the Bank’s annual review of the economy’s potential, which has resulted in a lower estimated range for potential output growth.

The combined effect of all of these global and domestic developments would have been a modest downgrade of the Bank’s outlook. However, the fiscal measures announced in the March federal budget will have a notable positive impact on GDP. The Bank now projects real GDP growth of 1.7 per cent in 2016, 2.3 per cent in 2017 and 2.0 per cent in 2018. This new growth profile, combined with the revised estimate for potential, suggests the output gap could close somewhat earlier than the Bank had anticipated in January, likely in the second half of 2017.

Inflation in Canada continues to track largely as the Bank anticipated. Total CPI inflation is below the 2 per cent target and will likely ease further before returning to 2 per cent as the effects of exchange rate pass-through and lower consumer energy prices unwind and the economy’s excess capacity diminishes. Measures of core inflation are close to 2 per cent and continue to reflect the offsetting influences of past exchange rate depreciation and excess capacity.

Overall, the risks to the profile for inflation are roughly balanced. Meanwhile, financial vulnerabilities continue to edge higher, in part due to regional shifts in activity associated with the structural adjustment underway in Canada’s economy. The Bank’s Governing Council judges that the overall balance of risks remains within the zone for which the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate, and the target for the overnight rate remains at 1/2 per cent.

Read the official press release here.

Here are the remaining announcement dates for 2016:

  • Wednesday 13 April*
  • Wednesday 25 May
  • Wednesday 13 July*
  • Wednesday 7 September
  • Wednesday 19 October*
  • Wednesday 7 December

*Monetary Policy Report published

All rate announcements will be made at 10:00 (ET), and the Monetary Policy Report will continue to be published concurrently with the April, July, and October rate announcements.

Monetary Policy Report April 2016

Go Ahead, Spend Your Tax Refund

Go Ahead, Spend Your Tax Refund

This article was written by Sandi Martin from Spring Personal Finance and was originally published here on March 29th 2016.

Ah, spring. The time of year when flowers bloom, birds sing, and the entire internet starts yelling at you for getting a tax refund or – even worse – getting a tax refund and then spending it.

The horror.

The conventional wisdom goes something like this: You shouldn’t get a tax refund, because it means that your HR department deducted too much tax from your paycheque, and you’ve been giving the government a tax-loan all year, you dummy.

Or this: The only thing you should spend your tax refund on is an RRSP contribution, because then your taxes will be lower this year, too, creating a virtuous circle of lower taxes for your income-earning lifetime. (You dummy.)

They’re all missing the point.

The problem here is one that finance writers themselves caution you against: your tax refund isn’t somehow a separate class of money than the stuff that’s deposited to your bank account every two weeks, and thinking about it differently than you think about your paycheque leads to the finger-wagging advice above…or a guilty feeling for not following it.

Let’s think of it in a different way, and maybe it will help: your tax refund is part of last year’s income, and you’re getting it today instead of with your paycheques last year. What would you have done with it if you’d been getting it all year rather than a month from now?

This is a good argument for asking to reduce your income tax deductions at source if you regularly get a refund because you pay union dues, childcare costs, contribute to your RRSP or donate to charity (among other things). Not because of the interest-free government loan malarky, but because you’ll be able to spend the income you earn when you earn it, instead of the following year. Be careful, though: if you’re not totally sure that you’ve calculated correctly, or that your tax situation this year will be the same as last year, maybe a tax free loan to the government with a refund in April is a better scenario than the reverse, especially if the resulting tax bill comes as a surprise.

Let me put it another way: what’s the goal of paying less in taxes? If your answer is “ummm…to pay less taxes?”…think of the possibilities you’re missing! (Also, you’d be a great finance writer.) Unless your goal in life is to stick it to the man, or to stop funding Provincial Program X or Federal Program Y (good luck with that, by the way), you probably want to give the government less of your money so you can use it to do the things you want to do with it.

Take the big picture view, and look at a refund as just another piece of your total income pie (mmmm….pie….). Use the total pie to spend on the things that are important to you, whether that’s as part of your overall debt reduction efforts, saving to quit your job, or finally paying for that activity your kids have been dying to join.

Treating your income tax refund as a special class of money that can only be used to do virtuous things actually encourages the other bad behaviours finance writers are bugging you about all the time: you’re in danger of relying on a future windfall to solve your spending or saving problems.

Don’t do that.

First Time Home-Buyers’ Tax Credit

First Time Home-Buyers’ Tax Credit

  • By mathieufugere@gmail.com
  • March 15, 2016
  • Blog,Video

Everything You Need to Know!

Have you heard about a First Time Home Buyers Tax Credit, but aren’t sure what it is or if you qualify? You are in the right place!

The Government of Canada recently published this video on their website to explain the First Time Home-Buyers’ Tax Credit. Watch the video or read the transcript below to see if you might be eligible to save up to $750 on your next tax return! Keep reading to view a Q&A from the Canada Revenue Agency site.

Click here or the image below to open the video in a new window.

Video Image CRA

Transcript

NARRATOR: Meet the Lees.

The Lees heard that the Government of Canada wants to help first-time home buyers with a tax credit and they’re excited to learn more!

They’ve just purchased their first home, and they can use some tax savings.

So how does it work?

The First Time Home Buyers’ Tax Credit is a non-refundable tax credit that you can claim if you bought a qualifying home.

A non-refundable tax credit reduces the federal income tax that the Lees have to pay.

However, if the total of their non-refundable tax credits is more than their federal income tax payable, the Lees won’t receive a refund for the difference.

So how do the Lees save this tax money?

The tax credit is based on $5,000. For 2015, their credit is 15%, the lowest personal income tax rate, times $5,000.

We’ll spare the Lees the math—the credit is $750,

maybe enough savings to hire student painters or buy that reclining chair they’ve been eyeing.

But what’s a qualifying home?

The home has to be in Canada, and can be new, or already built.

It can be a condominium, an apartment, a townhome, a detached, or semi-detached home.

It can also be a mobile home, or a share in a co-operative housing corporation if the share in the co-op gives you the right to own the unit.

And the home must be registered in Dave and / or Kim’s name.

Either Dave or Kim or both can make the claim, since the buyer and the buyer’s spouse or common-law partner qualify.

And people who buy their first home with their friends also qualify. No matter what, the combined total amount claimed can’t be more than $5,000.

But the credit is for first-time home buyers. Dave owned his apartment while he was in college.

Is he still eligible?

A buyer who has not owned a home in the year of purchase or in any of the last four preceding years qualifies. So Dave qualifies as long as he has not owned a home since 2010.

Kim’s aunt, who is disabled bought a home that will accommodate her disability. Kim is extra happy because her aunt can claim the Home Buyers’ Tax Credit as well.

People who are disabled, or buying the home for a disabled relative, also qualify for the credit, and it does not have to be their first home.

It must enable the person with the disability to live in a more accessible dwelling or in an environment better suited to their personal needs and care.

Dave and Kim are so excited to be saving money on their income tax! All they need to do is fill in the amount on Line 369 of Schedule 1, Federal tax and voila! Up to $750 saved.

Want to be like Dave and Kim?

Visit www.cra.gc.ca/hbtc for more information about the First Time Home Buyers’ Tax Credit.

From the Canada Revenue Agency

Read the original archived page here. 

1. What is the home buyers’ tax credit (HBTC)?

For 2009 and subsequent years, the HBTC is a new non-refundable tax credit, based on an amount of $5,000, for certain home buyers that acquire a qualifying home after January 27, 2009 (i.e., generally means that the closing is after this date).

2. How is the new HBTC calculated?

The HBTC is calculated by multiplying the lowest personal income tax rate for the year (15% in 2009) by $5,000. For 2009, the credit will be $750.

3. Am I eligible for the HBTC?

You will qualify for the HBTC if:

you or your spouse or common-law partner acquired a qualifying home; and
you did not live in another home owned by you or your spouse or common-law partner in the year of acquisition or in any of the four preceding years.
If you are a person with a disability or are buying a house for a related person with a disability, you do not have to be a first-time home buyer. However, the home must be acquired to enable the person with the disability to live in a more accessible dwelling or in an environment better suited to the personal needs and care of that person.

4. What is a qualifying home?

A qualifying home is a housing unit located in Canada acquired after January 27, 2009. This includes existing homes and those being constructed. Single-family homes, semi-detached homes, townhouses, mobile homes, condominium units, and apartments in duplexes, triplexes, fourplexes, or apartment buildings all qualify. A share in a co-operative housing corporation that entitles you to possess, and gives you an equity interest in, a housing unit located in Canada also qualifies. However, a share that only provides you with a right to tenancy in the housing unit does not qualify.

Also, you must intend to occupy the home or you must intend that the related person with a disability occupy the home as a principal place of residence no later than one year after it is acquired.

5. Who is considered a person with a disability for purposes of the HBTC?

For the purposes of the HBTC, a person with a disability is an individual who is eligible to claim a disability amount for the year in which the home is acquired, or would be eligible to claim a disability amount, if we ignore that costs for attendant care or care in a nursing home were claimed for the Medical Expense Tax Credit.

6. If I buy a house, can my spouse or common-law partner claim the HBTC?

Either one of you can claim the credit or you can share the credit. However, the total of your combined claims cannot exceed $750.

7. My friend and I intend to jointly purchase a home, and we both meet the conditions for the HBTC. Can we both claim the credit?

Either one of you can claim the credit or you can share the credit. However, the total of your combined claims cannot exceed $750.

8. Do I have to register the acquisition of the home under the applicable land registration system?

Yes. Your interest in the home must be registered in accordance with the land registration system applicable to where it is located.

9. How will I claim the HBTC?

Beginning with the 2009 personal income tax return, line 369 is incorporated into the Schedule 1, Federal Tax to allow you to claim the credit in the year in which you acquired the qualifying home.

10. Do I have to submit any supporting documents with my income tax return?

No. However, you must ensure that this information is available, should it be requested by the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA).

11. Is the HBTC connected to the existing Home Buyers’ Plan?

No. Although some of the eligibility conditions for the HBTC and the Home Buyers’ Plan are similar, the two are not connected. Your eligibility for the HBTC will not change whether or not you also participate in the Home Buyers’ Plan.

12. Where can I get more information about the new HBTC?

The CRA encourages taxpayers to check its Web site often—all new forms, policies, and guidelines are posted there as soon as they become available.

13. In which taxation year can I claim the HBTC?

You can claim the HBTC in the taxation year in which the qualifying home is acquired.

14. If I purchase a condominium as my qualifying home in which occupancy takes place in one taxation year but the legal transfer of ownership only takes place in the subsequent taxation year, in which taxation year can I claim the HBTC?

You can claim the HBTC in the subsequent year in which your interest in the condominium (or a right in Quebec) will be registered in accordance with the land registration system or other similar system applicable where it is located.

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Mar 9th, 2016

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Mar 9th, 2016

The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.

The global economy is progressing largely as the Bank anticipated in its January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Financial market volatility, reflecting heightened concerns about economic momentum, appears to be abating. Although downside risks remain, the Bank still expects global growth to strengthen this year and next. Recent data indicate that the U.S. expansion remains broadly on track. At the same time, the low level of oil prices will continue to dampen growth in Canada and other energy-producing countries.

Prices of oil and other commodities have rebounded in recent weeks. In this context, and in light of shifting expectations for monetary policy in Canada and the United States, the Canadian dollar has appreciated from its recent lows. With these movements, both the price of oil and the exchange rate have averaged close to levels assumed in the January MPR.

Canada’s GDP growth in the fourth quarter was not as weak as expected, but the near-term outlook for the economy remains broadly the same as in January. National employment has held up despite job losses in resource-intensive regions, and household spending continues to underpin domestic demand. Non-energy exports are gathering momentum, particularly in sectors that are sensitive to exchange rate movements. However, overall business investment remains very weak due to retrenchment in the resource sector.

Inflation in Canada is evolving broadly as anticipated. The factors that pushed total CPI inflation up to 2 per cent will likely unwind in the months ahead. Measures of core inflation are at or just below 2 per cent, boosted by the temporary effects of past exchange rate depreciation. Material excess capacity in the Canadian economy will continue to dampen inflation.

An assessment of the impact of the upcoming federal budget’s fiscal measures will be incorporated into the Bank’s April projection. All things considered, the risks to the profile for inflation are roughly balanced. Meanwhile, financial vulnerabilities continue to edge higher, in part due to regional shifts in activity associated with the structural adjustment underway in Canada’s economy. The Bank’s Governing Council judges that the overall balance of risks remains within the zone for which the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate, and the target for the overnight rate remains at 1/2 per cent.

Read the official press release here.

Here are the remaining announcement dates for 2016:

  • Wednesday 13 April*
  • Wednesday 25 May
  • Wednesday 13 July*
  • Wednesday 7 September
  • Wednesday 19 October*
  • Wednesday 7 December

*Monetary Policy Report published

All rate announcements will be made at 10:00 (ET), and the Monetary Policy Report will continue to be published concurrently with the April, July, and October rate announcements.

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Jan 20th, 2016

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Jan 20th, 2016

Amidst much speculation, the Bank of Canada announced today that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.

It appears 2016 is picking up where 2015 left off, with no change to interest rates by the Bank of Canada. Although this may appear to be non-news, given the volatility of the Canadian economy with the price of oil and the loonie continuing downward, sometimes doing nothing says a lot.

“Prices for oil and other commodities have declined further and this represents a setback for the Canadian economy. GDP growth likely stalled in the fourth quarter of 2015, pulled down by temporary softness in the U.S. economy, weaker business investment and several other temporary factors. The Bank now expects the economy’s return to above-potential growth to be delayed until the second quarter of 2016.”

Here are the remaining announcement dates for 2016:

  • Wednesday 9 March
  • Wednesday 13 April*
  • Wednesday 25 May
  • Wednesday 13 July*
  • Wednesday 7 September
  • Wednesday 19 October*
  • Wednesday 7 December

*Monetary Policy Report published

All rate announcements will be made at 10:00 (ET), and the Monetary Policy Report will continue to be published concurrently with the April, July, and October rate announcements.

Although it appears to be steady as she goes, hold on to your hat, 2016 appears to be an economic storm (or at the very least a media frenzy).

Here is a copy of the full Bank of Canada announcement.

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Jan 20th 2016

With a copy of the Monetary Policy for your reference.

Monetary Policy Report – January 2016