Blog : Economy

Is Now a Good Time to Buy?

Is Now a Good Time to Buy?

If you’re getting tired of all the media headlines claiming impending housing market and economic doom and gloom, you’re not alone. It seems every time you browse the news another US economist is predicting terrible things for Canada. Articles like this one, claiming an ‘extreme bubble’ is just around the corner… note, not just a bubble… but an extreme bubble. 

The truth is, mortgage rates have never been lower and while low interest rates are somewhat blamed for increased house prices, low interest rates are good for borrowers who are looking to get into the market. So despite what the media would have us believe, now (historically speaking) is actually a pretty good time to buy a property.

Understanding that you can’t control the future, and of course past performance doesn’t indicate future direction, if you isolate the actual cost of borrowing money, you might be surprised at how cheap money is right now. Obviously buying a property is a personal decision, the time has to be right for you, and your finances have to be in order, but if the sensational media headlines are causing you to second guess yourself or the market, let’s have a look at the cost of borrowing today compared to previous years.

Fixed Interest Rates

Fixed interest rates are at an all time low. Seriously, it has never been cheaper to borrow fixed money in Canada. Here is a handy chart that provides a visual to that effect, showcasing the historical posted 5 year mortgage rates from 1973 to today.

5 yr posted Graph

Reference: Bank of Canada Interest Rates

Here are a couple points to note:

  • In July of 1981, fixed rates were at 21.75%.
  • 21.75% is a higher rate of interest than a lot of credit cards. Yikes!
  • In July of 2016, rates were at 4.74%.
  • 4.74% is a posted rate, a lot of broker channel lenders have discounted rates in the low 2% range.

Prime Rate

So, fixed rates are a little too permanent for you? No problems, the prime rate (the rate that sets the baseline for a variable rate mortgage) can be found hovering below half of the Canadian historical average. So here is another handy chart that provides a visual going back to 1935 up until today.

Prime Rate Graph

Reference: Bank of Canada Interest Rates

A couple points to note:

  • The 80s were not only bad for music and fashion, but a bad time to borrow money as well.
  • Although prime is 2.7%, lenders offer a variable component discount as well tied to the prime.
  • Discounts in today’s lending landscape are around half a percentage point.
  • The 40s, 50s, and 60s, were pretty steady, who knows, we might just be in for some more of that!

Let’s Talk

So regardless if you prefer the fixed or variable, as you can see, it’s never been cheaper to borrow money. Period. Please don’t let the media scare you into thinking the market is about to implode, their job is to sell advertising not bring a balanced perspective to your newsfeed. Affordability is a personal thing and shouldn’t be dictated by a market you can’t control.

If you would like to figure out what you can afford, and go over your financial situation to prepare for getting a mortgage, I’d love to help. Please contact me anytime at 416.945.9123 or by email at mat@fugeremortgage.ca, I would love to work with you.

 

Negative-Yield Bonds – Pay to Save?

Negative-Yield Bonds – Pay to Save?

  • By mathieufugere@gmail.com
  • July 26, 2016
  • Blog,Economy

There is a good chance that if you skimmed the news headlines this last week, you passed right on over a piece called CIBC sells negative-yield bonds for 1st time. No one blames you, because let’s face it, stories about the Canadian bond market don’t really scream excitement. However, despite the dry subject matter, the idea of paying money in order to “save your money” is an interesting one.

Yep, you read that right, pay money to lose money. Negative-yield bonds are bonds you purchase expecting to lose money. CIBC just raised almost $1.8 billion in six-year debts that will lose 0.009%. So why in the world would anyone do this? Well, according to the CBC News article referenced above “Investors have an appetite for such debt because the forecast for other assets is even worse. With stock returns looking dodgy due to fears about the global economy, lending money to a bank can seem appealing even if it’s guaranteed to lose a few pennies per dollar over time.”

Negative Mortgage Rates

Given the fact that mortgage rates are at an all time low, if you ever actually found yourself wondering about things like bond rates, and mortgage rates, you might question what would happen if they kept going down. Can you have negative mortgage rates? Will the bank pay you money to buy a house? Actually these questions were addressed by Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz back in December of 2015.

Here are a couple articles that talk about negative mortgage rates.

Quick summary of the articles… Instead of taking a loss, the average person would probably keep their cash under their mattress… but if banks were being punished for saving, and losing value on what they keep on deposit with the central bank, they would essentially be encouraged to stop hoarding their cash… the uptick in borrowing and lending caused by negative interest rates could provide a much-needed boost to Canada’s economy.

Now, instead of putting your money into an investment that is guaranteed to lose money, it might be a good idea to look at investing in property. If you have some money to invest, the minimum downpayment required in Canada for a rental property is 20%. Rental properties are good in that they provide cash flow and appreciation. Obviously there are advantages and disadvantages to building a small rental portfolio, and the simple fear of losing money in your savings account isn’t going to push you into the market, but if it’s something you have already been thinking about, why don’t you pick up the phone and give me a call, I’d love to sit down with you and talk about some of the options you have available to you.

Please contact me anytime at 416.945.9123 or by email at mat@fugeremortgage.ca!