Blog : Mortgage

With all the recent government activity meant to bring stability to the Canadian housing market (read cool down Vancouver and Toronto), its no surprise that the bank of Canada has decided against making any drastic changes to the overnight rate in their announcement today. Here is the summary of where the government thinks we are at, along with a copy of the monetary policy report for October 2016. 

The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.

The global economy is expected to regain momentum in the second half of this year and through 2017 and 2018. After a weak first half, the US economy in particular is strengthening: solid consumption is being underpinned by strong employment growth and robust consumer confidence. However, because of elevated uncertainty, US business investment is on a lower track than expected.

Looking through the choppiness of recent data, the profile for growth in Canada is now lower than projected in July’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR). This is due in large part to slower near-term housing resale activity and a lower trajectory for exports. The federal government’s new measures to promote stability in Canada’s housing market are likely to restrain residential investment while dampening household vulnerabilities. Recent export data are improving but are not strong enough to make up for ground lost during the first half of 2016, despite the effects of the Canadian dollar’s past depreciation. Growth in exports over 2017 and 2018 are projected to be slower than previously forecast, due to lower estimates of global demand, a composition of US growth that appears less favourable to Canadian exports, and ongoing competitiveness challenges for Canadian firms.

After incorporating these weaker elements, Canada’s economy is still expected to grow at a rate above potential starting in the second half of 2016, supported by accommodative monetary and financial conditions and federal fiscal measures. As the economy continues to adjust to the oil price shock, investment in the energy sector appears to be bottoming out. Non-resource activity is growing solidly, particularly in the services sector. Household spending continues to rise, along with employment and incomes outside of energy-intensive regions. The Bank expects Canada’s real GDP to grow by 1.1 per cent in 2016 and about 2 per cent in both 2017 and 2018. This projection implies that the economy returns to full capacity around mid-2018, materially later than the Bank had anticipated in July.

Measures of core inflation remain close to 2 per cent as the effects of past exchange rate depreciation and excess capacity continue to offset each other. Total CPI inflation is tracking slightly below expectations because of temporary weakness in prices for gasoline, food, and telecommunications. The Bank expects total CPI inflation to be close to 2 per cent from early 2017 onwards, when these temporary factors will have dissipated, but downward pressure on inflation will continue while economic slack persists.

Given the downward revision to the growth profile and the later closing of the output gap, the Bank considers the risks around its updated inflation outlook to be roughly balanced, albeit in a context of heightened uncertainty. Meanwhile, the new housing measures should mitigate risks to the financial system over time. At present, the Bank’s Governing Council judges that the overall balance of risks is still in the zone for which the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate, and the target for the overnight rate remains at 1/2 per cent.

Read the official Release Here. 

Here are the remaining announcement dates for 2016.

• Wednesday 7 December

Here are the announcements dates set our for 2017.

• Wednesday 18 January*
• Wednesday 1 March
• Wednesday 12 April*
• Wednesday 24 May
• Wednesday 12 July*
• Wednesday 6 September
• Wednesday 25 October*
• Wednesday 6 December

*Monetary Policy Report published

All rate announcements will be made at 10:00 (ET), and the Monetary Policy Report will continue to be published concurrently with the January, April, July and October rate announcements.

Monetary Policy Report October 2016

The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.

Global growth in the first half of 2016 was slower than the Bank had projected in its July Monetary Policy Report (MPR), although the Bank continues to expect it to strengthen gradually in the second half of this year. The US economy was weaker than expected in the second quarter, notably reflecting a contraction in business and residential investment. While a healthy labour market and solid consumption should remain supportive of growth in the rest of the year, the outlook for business investment has become less certain. Meanwhile, global financial conditions have become even more accommodative since July. 

While Canada’s economy shrank in the second quarter, the Bank still projects a substantial rebound in the second half of this year. Second-quarter GDP was pulled down by the Alberta wildfires in May and by a drop in exports that was larger and more broad-based than expected. Exports disappointed even after accounting for weaker business and residential investment in the United States, adjustments in the resource sector, and cutbacks in auto production. The economy is expected to rebound in the third quarter as oil production recovers, rebuilding commences in Alberta, and consumer spending gets an additional lift from Canada Child Benefit payments. As federal infrastructure spending starts to have more impact, growth in the fourth quarter is projected to remain above potential. While the strength in exports during July was encouraging, the ground lost over previous months raises the possibility that the profile for economic activity will be somewhat lower than anticipated in July.  

Inflation is roughly in line with the Bank’s expectations. Total CPI inflation is below the 2 per cent target, mainly because of the temporary effects of lower consumer energy prices. Measures of core inflation remain around 2 per cent, reflecting offsetting effects of excess capacity and past exchange rate depreciation.

On balance, risks to the profile for inflation have tilted somewhat to the downside since July. At the same time, while there are preliminary signs of a possible moderation in the Vancouver housing market, financial vulnerabilities associated with household imbalances remain elevated and continue to rise. The Bank’s Governing Council judges that the overall balance of risks remains within the zone for which the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate, and the target for the overnight rate remains at 1/2 per cent.

Read the official Release Here. 

Here are the remaining announcement dates for 2016.

• Wednesday 7 September 
• Wednesday 19 October*
• Wednesday 7 December

Here are the announcements dates set our for 2017.

• Wednesday 18 January*
• Wednesday 1 March
• Wednesday 12 April*
• Wednesday 24 May
• Wednesday 12 July*
• Wednesday 6 September
• Wednesday 25 October*
• Wednesday 6 December

*Monetary Policy Report published

All rate announcements will be made at 10:00 (ET), and the Monetary Policy Report will continue to be published concurrently with the January, April, July and October rate announcements.

The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.

Inflation in Canada is on track to return to 2 per cent in 2017 as the complex adjustment underway in Canada’s economy proceeds. The fundamentals remain in place for a pickup in growth over the projection horizon, albeit in a climate of heightened uncertainty.

In this context, the forecast for the global economy has been marked down slightly from the Bank’s April Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Global GDP growth is projected to be 2.9 per cent in 2016, 3.3 per cent in 2017, and 3.5 per cent in 2018. In particular, after a weak start to 2016 the US economy is showing signs of a rebound, with a healthy labour market and solid consumption growth. In the wake of Brexit, global markets have materially re-priced a number of asset classes. Financial conditions, already accommodative, have become even more so.

In Canada, the quarterly pattern of growth has been uneven. Real GDP grew by 2.4 per cent in the first quarter but is estimated to have contracted by 1 per cent in the second quarter, pulled down by volatile trade flows, uneven consumer spending, and the Alberta wildfires. A pick-up to 3 1/2 per cent is expected in the third quarter as oil production resumes and rebuilding begins in Fort McMurray. Consumer spending will also get a boost from the Canada Child Benefit.

While the fundamental elements of the Bank’s projection are similar to those presented in April, the forecast has been revised down in light of a weaker outlook for business investment and a lower profile for exports, reflecting a downward adjustment to US investment spending. Real GDP is expected to grow by 1.3 per cent in 2016, 2.2 per cent in 2017, and 2.1 per cent in 2018. The Bank projects above-potential growth from the second half of 2016, lifted by rising US demand and supported by accommodative monetary and financial conditions. Federal infrastructure spending and other fiscal measures announced in the March budget will also contribute to growth.  Despite recent volatility, the Bank expects the underlying trend of export growth to continue, leading to a pick-up in business investment. Higher global oil prices are helping to stabilize Canada’s energy sector and household spending is expected to increase moderately.

The Bank forecasts that the output gap will close somewhat later than estimated in April, towards the end of 2017. Underlying this judgement is the downward revision to business investment, which lowers the profile for both real GDP and, to a lesser extent, potential output.  

While inflation has recently been a little higher than anticipated, largely due to higher consumer energy prices, it is still in the lower half of the Bank’s inflation-control range. Most measures of core inflation remain close to 2 per cent but would be lower without the impact of past exchange rate depreciation. The temporary effects of exchange-rate pass-through and past declines in consumer energy prices are expected to dissipate in late 2016, and the Bank projects that inflation will average close to 2 per cent throughout 2017 as the output gap narrows.

Overall, the risks to the profile for inflation are roughly balanced, although the implications of the Brexit vote are highly uncertain and difficult to forecast. At the same time, financial vulnerabilities are elevated and rising, particularly in the greater Vancouver and Toronto areas. The Bank’s Governing Council judges that the overall balance of risks remains within the zone for which the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate, and the target for the overnight rate remains at 1/2 per cent.

Read the official Release Here. 

Here are the remaining announcement dates for 2016:

• Wednesday 7 September
• Wednesday 19 October*
• Wednesday 7 December

*Monetary Policy Report published

All rate announcements will be made at 10:00 (ET), and the Monetary Policy Report will continue to be published concurrently with the April, July, and October rate announcements.

Monetary Policy Report

July 2016 Canadian Monetary Policy Report 

The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.

The global economy is evolving largely as the Bank projected in its April Monetary Policy Report (MPR). In the United States, despite weakness in the first quarter, a number of indicators, including employment, point to a return to solid growth in 2016. Financial conditions remain accommodative, with ongoing geopolitical factors contributing to fragile market sentiment. Oil prices are higher, in part because of short-term supply disruptions.

In Canada, the economy’s structural adjustment to the oil price shock continues, but is proving to be uneven. Growth in the first quarter of 2016 appears to be in line with the Bank’s April projection, although business investment and intentions remain disappointing. The second quarter will be much weaker than predicted because of the devastating Alberta wildfires. The Bank’s preliminary assessment is that fire-related destruction and the associated halt to oil production will cut about 1 1/4 percentage points off real GDP growth in the second quarter. The economy is expected to rebound in the third quarter, as oil production resumes and reconstruction begins. While the Canadian dollar has been fluctuating in response to shifting expectations of US monetary policy and higher oil prices, it is now close to the level assumed in April.

Inflation is roughly in line with the Bank’s expectations. Total CPI inflation has risen recently, largely due to movements in gasoline prices, but remains slightly below the 2 per cent target. Measures of core inflation remain close to 2 per cent, reflecting the offsetting influences of past exchange rate depreciation and excess capacity.

Canada’s housing market continues to display strong regional divergences, reinforced by the complex adjustment underway in the economy. In this context, household vulnerabilities have moved higher. Meanwhile, the risks to the Bank’s inflation projection remain roughly balanced. Therefore, the Bank’s Governing Council judges that the current stance of monetary policy is still appropriate, and the target for the overnight rate remains at 1/2 per cent.

Read the official press release here. 

Here are the remaining announcement dates for 2016:

• Wednesday 13 July*
• Wednesday 7 September
• Wednesday 19 October*
• Wednesday 7 December

*Monetary Policy Report published

All rate announcements will be made at 10:00 (ET), and the Monetary Policy Report will continue to be published concurrently with the April, July, and October rate announcements.

The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.

Growth in the global economy is expected to strengthen gradually from about 3 per cent in 2016 to 3 1/2 per cent in 2017-18, a weaker outlook than the Bank had projected in its January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). After a slow start to 2016, the US economy is expected to regain momentum, but with a lower profile and a composition that is less favourable for Canadian exports. Financial conditions have improved, partly in response to expectations of more accommodative monetary policy in some major economies.

Prices of oil and other commodities are off their earlier lows and slightly above levels assumed by the Bank in January, but remain well below historical averages. Nonetheless, the Bank expects deeper cuts to investment in Canada’s energy sector than were forecast in January. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar has firmed, reflecting shifting expectations for monetary policy in Canada and the United States, as well as recent increases in commodity prices.

The Canadian economy’s complex structural adjustment to the oil price shock is ongoing and will dampen growth throughout the Bank’s projection horizon. First-quarter GDP growth appears to have been unexpectedly strong, but some of that strength is due to temporary factors and is likely to reverse in the second quarter. Still, it does appear that the positive forces at work in the economy are starting to outweigh those that are negative. Non-resource exports are expected to strengthen, but their profile is weaker than previously projected, in part because of slower foreign demand growth and the higher Canadian dollar. The economy continues to create net new employment, especially in services, despite job losses in resource-intensive regions. In this context, household spending continues to expand moderately. While business investment is still shrinking due to sizeable declines in the energy sector, it is expected to turn positive later this year. The complex adjustment figures importantly in the Bank’s annual review of the economy’s potential, which has resulted in a lower estimated range for potential output growth.

The combined effect of all of these global and domestic developments would have been a modest downgrade of the Bank’s outlook. However, the fiscal measures announced in the March federal budget will have a notable positive impact on GDP. The Bank now projects real GDP growth of 1.7 per cent in 2016, 2.3 per cent in 2017 and 2.0 per cent in 2018. This new growth profile, combined with the revised estimate for potential, suggests the output gap could close somewhat earlier than the Bank had anticipated in January, likely in the second half of 2017.

Inflation in Canada continues to track largely as the Bank anticipated. Total CPI inflation is below the 2 per cent target and will likely ease further before returning to 2 per cent as the effects of exchange rate pass-through and lower consumer energy prices unwind and the economy’s excess capacity diminishes. Measures of core inflation are close to 2 per cent and continue to reflect the offsetting influences of past exchange rate depreciation and excess capacity.

Overall, the risks to the profile for inflation are roughly balanced. Meanwhile, financial vulnerabilities continue to edge higher, in part due to regional shifts in activity associated with the structural adjustment underway in Canada’s economy. The Bank’s Governing Council judges that the overall balance of risks remains within the zone for which the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate, and the target for the overnight rate remains at 1/2 per cent.

Read the official press release here.

Here are the remaining announcement dates for 2016:

• Wednesday 13 April*
• Wednesday 25 May
• Wednesday 13 July*
• Wednesday 7 September
• Wednesday 19 October*
• Wednesday 7 December

*Monetary Policy Report published

All rate announcements will be made at 10:00 (ET), and the Monetary Policy Report will continue to be published concurrently with the April, July, and October rate announcements.

Monetary Policy Report April 2016

The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.

The global economy is progressing largely as the Bank anticipated in its January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Financial market volatility, reflecting heightened concerns about economic momentum, appears to be abating. Although downside risks remain, the Bank still expects global growth to strengthen this year and next. Recent data indicate that the U.S. expansion remains broadly on track. At the same time, the low level of oil prices will continue to dampen growth in Canada and other energy-producing countries.

Prices of oil and other commodities have rebounded in recent weeks. In this context, and in light of shifting expectations for monetary policy in Canada and the United States, the Canadian dollar has appreciated from its recent lows. With these movements, both the price of oil and the exchange rate have averaged close to levels assumed in the January MPR.

Canada’s GDP growth in the fourth quarter was not as weak as expected, but the near-term outlook for the economy remains broadly the same as in January. National employment has held up despite job losses in resource-intensive regions, and household spending continues to underpin domestic demand. Non-energy exports are gathering momentum, particularly in sectors that are sensitive to exchange rate movements. However, overall business investment remains very weak due to retrenchment in the resource sector.

Inflation in Canada is evolving broadly as anticipated. The factors that pushed total CPI inflation up to 2 per cent will likely unwind in the months ahead. Measures of core inflation are at or just below 2 per cent, boosted by the temporary effects of past exchange rate depreciation. Material excess capacity in the Canadian economy will continue to dampen inflation.

An assessment of the impact of the upcoming federal budget’s fiscal measures will be incorporated into the Bank’s April projection. All things considered, the risks to the profile for inflation are roughly balanced. Meanwhile, financial vulnerabilities continue to edge higher, in part due to regional shifts in activity associated with the structural adjustment underway in Canada’s economy. The Bank’s Governing Council judges that the overall balance of risks remains within the zone for which the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate, and the target for the overnight rate remains at 1/2 per cent.

Read the official press release here.

Here are the remaining announcement dates for 2016:

• Wednesday 13 April*
• Wednesday 25 May
• Wednesday 13 July*
• Wednesday 7 September
• Wednesday 19 October*
• Wednesday 7 December

*Monetary Policy Report published

All rate announcements will be made at 10:00 (ET), and the Monetary Policy Report will continue to be published concurrently with the April, July, and October rate announcements.

Amidst much speculation, the Bank of Canada announced today that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.

It appears 2016 is picking up where 2015 left off, with no change to interest rates by the Bank of Canada. Although this may appear to be non-news, given the volatility of the Canadian economy with the price of oil and the loonie continuing downward, sometimes doing nothing says a lot.

“Prices for oil and other commodities have declined further and this represents a setback for the Canadian economy. GDP growth likely stalled in the fourth quarter of 2015, pulled down by temporary softness in the U.S. economy, weaker business investment and several other temporary factors. The Bank now expects the economy’s return to above-potential growth to be delayed until the second quarter of 2016.”

Here are the remaining announcement dates for 2016:

• Wednesday 9 March
• Wednesday 13 April*
• Wednesday 25 May
• Wednesday 13 July*
• Wednesday 7 September
• Wednesday 19 October*
• Wednesday 7 December

*Monetary Policy Report published

All rate announcements will be made at 10:00 (ET), and the Monetary Policy Report will continue to be published concurrently with the April, July, and October rate announcements.

Although it appears to be steady as she goes, hold on to your hat, 2016 appears to be an economic storm (or at the very least a media frenzy).

Here is a copy of the full Bank of Canada announcement.

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Jan 20th 2016

With a copy of the Monetary Policy for your reference.

Monetary Policy Report – January 2016